I’ve never been a prepper a day in my life. After 9/11 I bought a couple boxes of canned goods. That's about how close I ever got.
But, the rhetoric I see today has me actually concerned for the first time in my life that there may actually be a civil war. The media seems hell-bent on creating it, and as usual people fall hook line and sinker.
As for the military, I served and I think your analysis for the most part reflects my experience, but I need to think on it more. though, the one thing I’d add is that the most powerful influencing force (besides being legally required to follow orders) is the need to protect your buddies and fight beside them.’
The personal ties developed in the combat arms are hard to explain to people who haven’t felt them, but it really does become the center of one’s moral compass…or, at least, it threatens to.
So, in determining how military forces would react if commanded to take action in a civil war, I think that aspect of it needs to be taken into consideration. People can, and will, do things they’d normally never do, in order to fight for their team when the stakes are raised all the way to the point of life or death.
Though, admittedly, I’ve never come close to seeing those bonds tested in the face of something like acting on your own population.